By withdrawing from the significant agreement that facilitated Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea, Russian President Vladimir Putin is making a high-risk move that could severely impair Moscow’s relationships with many of its neutral or supportive allies amid its invasion of Ukraine.
Moreover, Russia has demonstrated a disruptive role at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution to extend humanitarian aid deliveries through a critical border crossing in northwestern Syria and supporting Mali’s military junta’s effort to eject U.N. peacekeepers—sudden moves that echo Moscow’s willingness to escalate the stakes globally.
Putin’s stated reason for halting the Black Sea Grain Initiative was to seek relief from Western sanctions on Russia’s agricultural exports. His more long-term objective might be to undermine Western determination over Ukraine and extract further concessions from the U.S. and its allies as the war approaches its 17th month.
The Kremlin has further escalated the situation by terminating the grain deal, launching attacks on Ukrainian ports, and designating extensive areas of the Black Sea as unsafe for shipping.
However, with the West displaying a minimal willingness to surrender any territory, Putin’s actions may not only threaten worldwide food security. Still, they could also rebound negatively on Russia’s interests, potentially leading to apprehensions in China, straining Moscow’s relationship with crucial ally Turkey, and damaging its connections with African countries.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who facilitated the grain deal with the U.N. a year ago, has advocated for its extension and stated his intent to negotiate with Putin. The robust trading partnership between Turkey and Russia further cemented amidst Western sanctions, places Erdogan in a powerful position to extract concessions from Putin possibly.
Although Turkey and Russia have found themselves on opposite sides in conflicts in Syria, Libya, and the longstanding dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they have found common ground in areas such as energy, defence, diplomacy, tourism, and trade.
Experts believe the dynamic nature of this relationship can be traced back to the times of sultans and czars, fluctuating between competition and cooperation.
The scale seems to have tilted in Ankara’s favour for now. However, Moscow still holds some influencing factors, such as the potential cancellation of gas payment deferments or withdrawal of financial capital for the Akkuyu nuclear plant being built by Russia. Moscow could also affect Turkey by limiting Russian tourists, a significant source of income.
In Moscow, there is speculation that Russia’s decision to extend the grain deal for two months in May was intended to aid Erdogan’s reelection campaign. Still, Moscow was taken aback by his subsequent shift toward the West.
Following his re-election, Erdogan has pursued a more pro-Western path, leading to discomfort in Moscow. This development presents Putin with a predicament: despite his support for Erdogan, he now faces a more active, pro-Western Turkey under Erdogan’s leadership.
Moscow could pressure Erdogan by challenging Turkey’s interests in northwestern Syria, where Ankara has backed opposition groups since the conflict’s beginning.
Additionally, Russia has shown a more assertive stance at the U.N. and in Syria while simultaneously courting African nations with promises of support. The Kremlin has highlighted its readiness to supply African countries with free grain following the Black Sea deal’s termination.
The Ukrainian grain deal facilitated the transportation of 32.9 million metric tons of grain and other food to global markets. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the impact of Russia’s actions on these exports, notably pointing out that 60,000 metric tons of grain destroyed by a Russian strike on the port of Odesa were destined for China.
The Kremlin’s withdrawal from the grain deal has been celebrated by hard-liners in Moscow. Yet, despite such rhetoric, Russia’s decision is unlikely to be favourably received in African nations, potentially straining already fragile relationships.
The repercussions of Putin’s decision to withdraw from the grain deal will likely extend beyond the immediate impact on global food security. As Russia’s actions further isolate the nation and strain its relationships with its remaining allies, the international community will be closely watching the Kremlin’s next moves. In this geopolitical chess match, the stakes are political and human, with the potential to disrupt the lives and livelihoods of millions worldwide.
