Economists and financial experts worldwide are voicing concerns over the state of the global economy in 2024. According to a recent survey conducted by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the majority of top economists anticipate a potential slowdown in global economic growth due to escalating geopolitical tensions and a host of other factors.
The survey, which involved 30 chief economists and took place between November and December of the previous year, revealed that 56% of the experts questioned expect the global economy to weaken in 2024. This outlook is underscored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which also predicts a modest decrease in global economic growth from 3% in the preceding year to 2.9% in 2024.
While economic analysts generally remain cautious, their sentiments diverge across different regions. Europe, in particular, faces a daunting economic outlook, with a staggering 77% of surveyed economists anticipating weakened growth in the region. This represents a significant increase from previous estimates.
The United States, another major player in the global economy, has also seen a shift in economic sentiment. In a previous survey, 78% of economists forecasted moderate or higher growth in the U.S. for the current year. However, the latest research shows a decrease in this optimism, with only 56% now expecting favorable economic conditions.
Despite these concerns, economists maintain a relatively positive outlook for South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific. However, China’s economic prospects have taken on a more cautious tone, with 69% of respondents expecting only moderate growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
One of the major concerns highlighted by the experts is the prevalence of geopolitical rifts and tensions across the globe. A notable 69% of economists anticipate an acceleration in geopolitical fragmentation throughout 2024. They believe that these geopolitical factors will contribute to increased global economic volatility, with 87% expecting this trend to persist over the next three years. Furthermore, eight out of ten economists foresee heightened volatility in stock markets, adding to the uncertainty faced by businesses and investors.
The year 2024 also carries added uncertainties due to an unprecedented number of elections taking place in over 75 countries, including major economies like the United States and the United Kingdom. These political events further contribute to the overall sense of instability and unpredictability.
On a more positive note, the survey indicates that 70% of economists expect a loosening of financial conditions. Inflation expectations have also decreased across all regions, with particular improvement noted in Europe and the United States. However, it’s worth noting that two-thirds of the economists surveyed still anticipate moderate inflation in these regions.
The global economic landscape for 2024 appears to be marked by caution and uncertainty, driven by geopolitical tensions and a variety of economic factors. While there are some positive developments, economists and policymakers are bracing themselves for a potentially challenging year ahead as they navigate these turbulent waters.
