President Joe Biden is set on taking full responsibility for the U.S. economy – a stance fueled by the White House’s conviction that inflation is receding, employment growth is strong, and these achievements must be publicized.
However, continuous surveys indicate that the economy is Biden’s Achilles heel regarding his reelection aspirations. As per a Public Affairs poll, a mere 33% of respondents approve of his economic leadership.
Throughout his term, Biden has attributed escalating gasoline prices, steep food cost hikes, and other living expenses to the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. He claimed these external factors were out of his hands when inflation soared to a 40-year peak last summer, severely damaging his approval ratings.
In an address in Chicago this Wednesday, Biden will initiate a new campaign to reassure an anxious public that the U.S. economy is prospering rather than teetering on recession, thanks to his governance. For him, the approaching 2024 reelection campaign coincides with a promising shift in recent economic indicators, prompting the White House to strongly believe that public discourse on “Bidenomics” will mobilize Democratic voters in the forthcoming year.
The message isn’t novel, but the White House insists on its repetition for better absorption. At the press briefing, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that the president’s impending remarks would be a “landmark” speech, part of a broader administration effort.
“It’s a plan focused on stimulating the economy from the middle and the bottom – we continue to assert this because we are certain that trickle-down economics is ineffective,” said Jean-Pierre. “We have data to back this up.”
Indeed, the inflation rate has been declining over the last year while the job market has remained resilient, defying the forecasts of economic analysts who predicted that attempts to curb inflation would result in job cuts and a recession. Goldman Sachs now estimates a 25% chance of a recession in the upcoming 12 months, a decrease from its former 35% prediction.
Consumer prices escalated at an annual rate of 4% in May, a decline from the 9.1% spike last June but still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighting the ongoing inflation issue. Yet, with the addition of a solid 339,000 jobs last month, there’s an indication that the economy is set to maintain its growth. The annual inflation-adjusted growth in hourly earnings became positive in May, one of the critical signs the White House officials had been seeking as proof of the economy’s benefit to workers.
Biden’s GOP adversaries have argued that he has crippled the U.S. economy, bypassing the healthy 3.7% unemployment rate and spotlighting gasoline prices, grocery bills, the debt linked to Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic aid, and the administration’s shift from fossil fuels to combat climate change.
“I will end Joe Biden’s inflation nightmare and rescue the U.S. economy,” promised former President Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, in a recent address to evangelical Christians.
Public trust in Biden’s economic leadership has dwindled since the 60% approval rating following his pandemic relief law enactment in March 2021, according to an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs poll. The approval rate has almost halved since then.
However, there are signs of improving public opinion on the economy. A survey from the University of Michigan indicates that Democrats, Republicans, and Independent voters generally feel more optimistic about the current economy than a year ago. However, Democratic confidence is still below the level during Biden’s initial year.
Before Biden’s speech, the administration released a memo highlighting the general support for his policy proposals in polls, subtly pointing out that these initiatives usually receive better responses than the president himself.
Biden’s aides view ‘Bidenomics’ as a comprehensive approach, connecting various of the president’s strategies for easy public understanding. This encompasses initiatives to enhance the country’s international competitiveness and programs to fortify the domestic middle class.
Biden is wagering that precise government investments and aid workers can drive the economy forward. During his first two years when Democrats controlled the House, Biden pursued his pandemic relief with a bipartisan infrastructure bill, funding for computer chip factories, and tax incentives to encourage the use of renewable energy.
This approach echoes Biden’s blue-collar background, often brought up in his speeches: the kid from Scranton, Pennsylvania, whose family sometimes barely made ends meet.
However, repairing bridges and tunnels could take years, constructing new factories, installing broadband internet cables, and making drivers comfortable with electric vehicles. Administration officials have privately conceded that there is a gap between the economy that the president is promising and what voters will likely witness by the 2024 elections.
Biden initially dismissed higher inflation as “transitory” in July 2021, expressing confidence that the post-pandemic surge was temporary. These remarks became a target for Republican lawmakers and some economists as inflation intensified after his statement.
Nevertheless, Biden emphasizes that he offers an alternative to GOP policies that mainly aim to boost the economy through tax cuts. In announcing over $40 billion to ensure nationwide high-speed internet, he likened his ideas to the New Deal-era strategies used to counter the Great Depression almost a century ago.
“We are doing something similar to what Franklin Delano Roosevelt did when he brought electricity to nearly every American home and farm,” Biden stated.
Whether voters believe Biden can achieve what FDR did and whether election dynamics work the same as in 1936 when the Rural Electrification Act was passed. That November, Roosevelt won over 60% of the popular vote and secured his second term.
In the divisive era, Biden is unlikely to secure a margin near Roosevelt’s. Yet, his message on Wednesday will convey that his presidency has already started to revamp the world’s largest economy for the better, and voters should evaluate him based on this performance.
He gave a glimpse of his main message to voters at a fundraiser last week in California, despite polls suggesting that a significant part of the public remains pessimistic about the U.S. direction.
“We have, I believe,” he stated, “ignited an expectation in America that we can achieve anything.”
The general public’s perception of Biden’s economic prowess will play a pivotal role in his 2024 reelection campaign. As he battles ongoing criticisms and seeks to underscore his achievements, his ability to resonate with voters will ultimately determine his success. As Biden continues to drive his ‘Bidenomics’ agenda, the U.S. awaits to see whether this economic model can truly turn around a tumultuous period and usher in a new era of prosperity and growth.
