Amid revolts in New Hampshire, resistance in Georgia, and political pushbacks in South Carolina, Nevada, and Michigan, the Democratic Party is struggling to reorganize its primary process. Meanwhile, Iowa is still figuring out how to maintain its initial position within the party rules.
President Joe Biden’s plan to modify the preliminary order to represent better the diverse voter base received the party’s approval months ago. However, the process has become far more challenging than initially expected. Even as the 2024 presidential race begins to heat up, party officials anticipate extending the process until the year-end.
David Redlawsk, the University of Delaware’s political science department chair, stated that the reactions and backlash align with what they predicted when the president proposed the idea. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) had prepared for a challenging process and is not overly concerned about the uncertainties, mainly because Biden’s primary challengers are relatively minor.
The president intends to focus more on the general election than the Democratic primary, potentially complicating the Democrats’ attempts to project unity in the run-up to 2024. It might also pose challenges for 2028 when the party is slated to revisit its primary calendar.
Jim Roosevelt, co-chairman of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, however, remains optimistic, stating that they can manage the protests from Republicans and are prepared to make significant changes to the process.
There are expectations of another potentially problematic calendar reordering in the next cycle. This could make it hard for Democrats in a competitive presidential primary to know where to strategize their campaigns.
The DNC has no plans to modify the 2024 plan it approved in February, despite the upheaval. This plan removes Iowa’s caucus from the initial spot it held since 1972 and replaces it with South Carolina. New Hampshire and Nevada were set to follow.
The new sequence puts Georgia’s primary on Feb. 13 and Michigan’s two weeks later, before most of the country votes on Super Tuesday in early March. But New Hampshire and Georgia have disapproved of the new order, resulting in unrest.
The party insists on going ahead with the changes despite the ongoing hurdles. The reordering process will get another opportunity in the next cycle, potentially causing further turmoil with tangible electoral implications. The party may consider starting its 2028 calendar discussions soon after the 2024 election to help mitigate any uncertainty.
Iowa Democrats hope their flexibility might place them in the Democratic primary’s top five if Georgia and New Hampshire vacate their spots. However, Roosevelt deems such a scenario unlikely.
On the other hand, New Hampshire is adamant about maintaining its initial position and refuses to change its state law accordingly.
Biden’s reelection campaign has declined to discuss the possible boost his primary challengers might receive due to the resistance in New Hampshire. Iowa Democrats, however, have said they’ll list Biden among the presidential preferences in their caucus irrespective of his campaigning efforts there.
Despite the challenges, Redlawsk believes the party’s determination will push the reordering process forward, making a profound impact. The initial states significantly influence the campaign, and changing these could lead to an entirely different outcome.
As the Democratic Party grapples with a complex reordering of its primary calendar, the political landscape leading up to the 2024 presidential elections is expected to evolve significantly. The process’s intricacies reveal the delicate balance of political power across different states, with the outcome potentially shaping future electoral strategies. It is clear that while the Democratic Party aims to represent its diverse voter base better, the journey is filled with formidable challenges and uncertainties. The forthcoming months will be critical in understanding how these changes will be adopted, resisted, or adjusted and their implications for the 2024 presidential race.
