The Kansas City Chiefs have had an uncanny season, leaving fans in awe or frustration depending on their allegiance. For Buffalo Bills fans like myself, watching their streak of seemingly miraculous wins has been both painful and fascinating. From last-second field goal drama to razor-thin margins of victory, this team has luck on its side—and then some.
Miraculous Wins Define the Chiefs’ Season
This season, the Chiefs have pulled off victories in jaw-dropping ways. They’ve blocked last-second field goals to win and seen field goals bounce off the upright and into the net at the perfect moment. Their 12-1 through 13 games record masks an underlying truth: the Chiefs are the luckiest 11+ win team in Super Bowl history.
“They’ve gone 12-1 through sheer grit and fortune,” noted Neil Paine, a sports analyst and statistician.
Point Differential: The Unlikely Stat
This season, the Chiefs’ point differential is astonishingly low for a team with such a stellar record. They’ve only outscored opponents by 56 points across 13 games, averaging just over four points per game in the margin. Historically, no other team with 11+ wins in this timeframe ranks lower in point differential.
To put it into perspective, the 12-1 Detroit Lions have outscored their opponents by 183 points—over three times that of the Chiefs. Even the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles, at 11-2, boast point differentials of 99 and 108, respectively.
A Lucky Streak or Something More?
The Chiefs’ recent five-game stretch underscores their reliance on close games. They won four contests by razor-thin margins—two points, three points, two points, and two points again. Their sole loss came at the hands of the Buffalo Bills by nine points. Despite an even point differential across those five games, they emerged with a 4-1 record.
But does luck truly mean doom in the playoffs? History suggests it might. Among teams with the 25 best point differentials, 36% went on to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, teams with the 25 worst differentials had only a 12% chance of ultimate victory.
A Cautionary Tale from History
Looking at history offers a glimmer of hope for Chiefs fans. The 2003 New England Patriots, with a similarly low point differential, managed to win the Super Bowl, averaging narrow victories throughout their playoff run. On the flip side, the 2007 Patriots, who had the best point differential in history, lost the Super Bowl despite an undefeated season.
As Paine noted, “Point differential tells us less about Super Bowl chances than we might expect.”
Weak Opponents and the Chiefs’ Fate
The Chiefs have faced relatively weak opponents, whose average win percentage is just 46%, compared to the league average of 50%. Yet, history shows that opponent strength has little correlation with playoff success for 11+ win teams. Super Bowl winners have faced opponents with similar records to those of teams that didn’t go all the way.
Can Luck Keep Rolling?
Despite the stats, there’s no guarantee that the Chiefs’ luck will run out. As last season showed, they didn’t dominate their postseason opponents in point differential yet still managed deep playoff runs. While fans like me hope for a Bills resurgence and a Chiefs stumble, the unpredictability of football ensures nothing is certain.
From field goal drama to nail-biting finishes, the Chiefs’ 2024 season embodies the wild, unpredictable nature of sports. For better or worse, they’ve become the luckiest good team ever—and their story isn’t over yet.
