Amidst signs of a recovering global economy, concerns loom large over the possibility of entering what has been termed ‘the tepid Twenties’, according to the latest warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Recent remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), reflected a momentary optimism, citing signs of recovery in key economies such as the United States and India. Lagarde’s sentiments were echoed during the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where discussions centered around the global economic outlook.
However, despite these optimistic remarks, several factors dampen the prospects of sustained economic growth. One key concern is the persistent price pressures in the United States, which could lead to prolonged higher interest rates and, consequently, increased global borrowing costs. This situation could disproportionately impact emerging markets with significant dollar-denominated debt.
Moreover, the IMF’s long-term projections paint a sobering picture of global growth prospects over the next decade. Dubbed ‘the tepid Twenties’, these projections suggest a marked slowdown in global growth compared to pre-pandemic levels. Factors contributing to this outlook include weak productivity growth, retrenchment in globalization, and geopolitical uncertainties.
The IMF identifies years of low-interest-rate policies following the 2008 global financial crisis as a contributing factor to sluggish productivity growth and a misallocation of capital. This has resulted in the persistence of inefficient ‘zombie’ companies and a slowdown in investment in more productive ventures.
Additionally, the global economic backdrop is less favorable than in previous decades, with the absence of positive supply shocks that characterized the 1990s and 2000s. Instead, the world economy faces challenges from various upheavals, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions.
Furthermore, fragmentation in the global trading system, exemplified by escalating tariffs and subsidies between major economies like the United States and China, poses a significant threat to global economic stability. Industrial policies, once shunned in global economic policymaking circles, are making a comeback, further complicating efforts to foster international cooperation and trade.
Suggestions to address the productivity gap include implementing new growth drivers such as longer working hours, immigration policies to attract skilled labor, and investment in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.
However, fiscal constraints limit the capacity of governments to stimulate economic growth effectively. Concerns over rising deficits, particularly in the United States and China, highlight the challenges policymakers face in balancing economic recovery with fiscal sustainability.
The IMF’s warnings of complacency among authorities regarding budgetary risks underscore the need for proactive measures to address long-term economic challenges. Despite short-term optimism, the downward trajectory in IMF growth forecasts signals a daunting road ahead for global economic recovery.
As policymakers grapple with these complex issues, the global economy stands at a crossroads. The decisions made in the coming years will shape the trajectory of economic growth and prosperity for the foreseeable future. Whether the world can navigate the challenges ahead and avoid the pitfalls of ‘the tepid Twenties’ remains to be seen.
