Putin Alleges Escalating Conflict in Southeastern Ukraine with Russia Delivering Significant Damage

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Southeastern Ukraine was engulfed in heightened conflict, with Kyiv said to be executing a significant counterattack and Russian President Vladimir Putin asserting that “the clash has escalated markedly.”

Recent weeks have seen combat across various points along the extensive front line, stretching over 1,000 kilometres (over 600 miles). Ukraine uses Western-provided weaponry and soldiers trained by the West to resist the Russian invasion that commenced 17 months ago.

Putin applauded the “valour” displayed by Russian soldiers in defending against onslaughts in the Zaporizhzhia region of the southeast, contending that Russian forces not only obliterated Ukraine’s military hardware but also dealt considerable damage to Kyiv’s forces.

On state TV, he maintained that Ukraine’s regional advance had failed, although this claim couldn’t be independently validated. Putin made this statement from St. Petersburg, where he was attending an African leaders’ summit.

Ukrainian forces have achieved only minor victories since their counteroffensive began in early June, and Putin has repeatedly insisted that Ukraine has sustained substantial losses, though without providing substantiating evidence.

A Western official reported that Ukraine has deployed thousands of troops in the region in recent days but wasn’t authorized to comment on the issue publicly.

It remains uncertain how this current effort by Ukraine varies from previous attempts to penetrate the deeply rooted Russian defences. The Russian military has erected extensive minefields to thwart Ukrainian progress and employed combat aircraft and persistent munitions to target Ukrainian tanks and artillery.

The operational specifics of Ukraine’s counteroffensive remain confidential, and authorities have disclosed little information regarding its evolution.

However, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced on Wednesday that forces are progressing toward Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukraine’s control of Melitopol, situated near the Sea of Azov, would signify a significant victory in piercing the land passageway between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014. This could divide the Russian forces and disrupt supply lines to further west units. Russia currently dominates the entire coast of the Sea of Azov.

Russian military bloggers indicate that the most recent Ukrainian advance is centred around the Staromaiorske village, near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia provinces. If the Russian defences in this area were to falter, it would pave the way for Ukrainian forces to proceed southward toward the coast.

Ukraine’s apparent counterattack follows a period of Russian military and political instability in June. During this time, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner private military company, staged a fleeting rebellion, posing the most serious threat to Putin’s 23-year reign.

These mercenaries have since retreated from the Ukrainian battleground, where they played a crucial role in seizing the Bakhmut stronghold after the lengthiest battle of the war. Reports suggest thousands of Wagner troops have relocated to Belarus to train its soldiers before heading to Africa.

The Institute of Study of War, a think tank based in Washington, reported that Ukrainian forces initiated “a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation” in western Zaporizhzhia on Wednesday, and they “appear to have breached certain pre-set Russian defensive positions.”

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the city of Dnipro, north of Zaporizhzhia, to discuss air defences, ammunition supplies, and regional recruitment with military leaders.

He also visited a medical facility treating the wounded from the front, acknowledging the staff’s work and underscoring the importance of their role in saving lives. The recent surge in casualties at a Dnipro hospital suggested an increased pace of fighting.

In what appears to be a preventive measure, Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, barred civilian access to the Arabat Spit in Crimea, a slender landmass connecting the peninsula to the partially occupied Kherson region. According to a statement from the FSB quoted by Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti, the indefinite prohibition is necessary to manage security threats.

Having provided Ukraine with weapons and intelligence, American officials refrained from commenting publicly on the recent developments. However, they have previously advised patience as Ukraine works to wear down Russian positions.

While visiting Papua New Guinea, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin remarked that Kyiv’s attempt to reclaim territory seized by Russia since its full-scale invasion in February 2022 would be a challenging, prolonged endeavour involving both victories and setbacks.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged the presence of “a fierce battle” but refrained from sharing details. He expressed confidence in the assistance provided to Ukraine, saying, “We believe that the tools, equipment, training, and advice shared with Ukrainians over many months put them in a good position to successfully reclaim more of the territory that Russia has seized from Ukraine.”

In the meantime, a missile attack on Ukraine’s southern Odesa region resulted in one civilian casualty and further damaged its port infrastructure. According to Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper, this represents the latest strike since Moscow reneged on a grain export agreement. 

He stated that the assault employed Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea. The Ukrainian air force reported intercepting 36 Russian missiles fired from Tu-95MS strategic bombers.

The struggle between Ukraine and Russia in southeastern Ukraine shows no signs of subsiding. Despite the intensity of the conflict and the efforts to retake seized territory, it remains to be seen how the situation will develop and whether the assistance provided by the West will contribute to a significant shift in the balance of power. As both countries continue to wage their battles, the international community watches closely, hoping for a resolution to restore the region’s peace and stability.