President Vladimir Putin is slated to engage this week in his premier multilateral summit since a recent armed rebellion unsettled Russia, participating in an international consortium where his nation continues to find favour.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security alliance established by Russia and China to offset Western blocs from East Asia to the Indian Ocean, will virtually convene their summit on Tuesday. This year’s host is India, a member since 2017, offering another avenue for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to underscore the nation’s burgeoning global influence.
Until now, the grouping has concentrated on reinforcing security and economic collaboration, combating terrorism and drug trafficking, addressing climate change, and the conditions in Afghanistan following the 2021 Taliban takeover. Russia’s Ukraine conflict was scarcely touched upon in the foreign ministers’ public statements during last month’s meeting in India; however, the ensuing impact on developing nations regarding food and fuel security is a concern within the group, according to analysts.
This forum has heightened significance for Moscow, which is keen to illustrate the West’s failure to marginalize it. Membership of the consortium includes the four Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, where Russia’s influence is pronounced. Other members include Pakistan (joined in 2017), Iran (joined on Tuesday), and Belarus, poised to enter soon.
“This SCO gathering offers one of the few global chances for Putin to convey power and legitimacy,” commented Michael Kugelman, the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute director.
No member nations have criticized Russia in U.N. resolutions, choosing instead to abstain. China has deployed an envoy to facilitate Russia-Ukraine dialogues, while India consistently advocates peaceful conflict resolution.
For Putin, the summit provides an occasion to affirm his authority following a brief insurrection led by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. “Putin will aim to assure his partners that he maintains control and convincingly dispel any doubts regarding his government’s capacity to quell challenges,” remarked Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
In May, India declared that the summit would be held virtually, contrasting with last year’s in-person gathering in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where Putin interacted and dined with other leaders.
Considering Prime Minister Modi’s recent honorific state visit to the U.S., the visual representation of hosting Putin and China’s leader Xi Jinping so soon might be problematic for New Delhi. Kugelman added that after the grand reception Modi got in America, “it would be too soon for India to welcome Chinese and Russian leaders.”
Despite the ongoing war, India’s ties with Moscow remain robust; India has secured record levels of Russian crude and depends on Moscow for 60% of its defence equipment. Concurrently, the U.S. and its allies have been actively wooing India, perceived as a counter to China’s mounting ambitions.
Within the forum, India’s crucial priority is navigating its relationships with the West and the East, as the nation is also hosting the Group of 20 summits in September. The forum also facilitates India’s more profound engagement with Central Asia.
“India revels in this form of foreign policy where it simultaneously negotiates with everyone,” observed Derek Grossman, an Indo-Pacific analyst at the RAND Corporation.
At the summit, New Delhi is expected to secure its interests, likely emphasizing the urgency to confront “cross-border terrorism” — a subtle reference to Pakistan, whom India accuses of aiding and training rebels who demand either the independence of Indian-administered Kashmir or its integration into Pakistan, a claim Pakistan refutes.
Furthermore, the need to respect territorial integrity and sovereignty may also be emphasized, typically aimed at its other adversary, China. A prolonged three-year standoff between India and China, involving thousands of soldiers posted along their contested border in the eastern Ladakh region, remains unresolved.
Observers note that China, aspiring to establish itself as a global authority, is emerging as a commanding participant in forums like the SCO, where interest in full membership from countries such as Myanmar, Turkey, and Afghanistan has recently surged.
“The SCO’s limitation is that China and Russia aim to transform it into an anti-Western bloc, which is inconsistent with India’s independent foreign policy,” stated Madan.
The SCO could pose a long-term challenge for Washington and its allies. “For nations discontent with the West and their foreign policies, the SCO offers a welcome alternative, primarily due to Russia and China’s roles… This highlights how relevant and concerning this group could be for several Western capitals, particularly if it continues to expand,” Kugelman explained.
As the world’s geopolitical landscape evolves, the SCO summit underscores the complex alliances, rivalries, and power dynamics that shape international relations. From the immediate need to address pressing security issues to longer-term strategies for economic cooperation, the summit provides a window into how nations navigate their relationships in a multipolar world. The event could gauge how alliances like SCO can influence global politics, especially if they continue to expand and attract new members. The gathering’s outcomes may indicate how significant players like Russia, China, and India will negotiate their positions on the global stage in the coming years.
