The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is serving as a source of lessons for the United States as it prepares for a potential future confrontation with China.
Beijing is the biggest threat to the US, with military officials believing that the country is preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027. The US is Taiwan’s chief ally and supplier of defence weapons.
According to a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies report, Chinese attacks on Taiwan and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have clear parallels.
Here are some of the lessons that the US is drawing from the Ukraine war with regard to a potential conflict with China:
ARMING IN ADVANCE
Unlike the situation in Ukraine, where the US and its allies sent weapons only after Russian troops crossed the border, Taiwan must be fully armed in advance.
The island could be isolated for weeks or months, making it impossible to rely on the “Ukraine model.”
STOCKPILE WOES
The US and European defence stockpiles have been put under intense pressure by the conflict in Ukraine, exposing weaknesses in inventory and production capacity.
The situation has particularly highlighted the shortage of 155mm howitzer ammunition, which the US has been sending to Ukraine in large quantities.
A future conflict with China would likely involve more air and sea power, but allies would still require support with land-based systems and ammunition.
REBUILDING TAKES TIME
To avoid arranging new contracts, the US has established a presidential authority for Taiwan to send weapons from its stockpiles.
However, many of the military sales promised to Taiwan are facing the same pressures as the Ukraine munitions, such as limited parts or workforce issues. Stockpiles of 155mm, Javelin, and Stinger could take five years or longer to replenish.
SPACE AS A FRONT LINE
Space technology has proven valuable in intelligence, communications, and propaganda during the conflict in Ukraine.
The US is looking at expanding satellite communications, building on the success of companies like Starlink.
However, ground stations that process and disseminate information are also vulnerable to cyberattacks, which China is likely to use to prevent Taiwan from sending out messages of resistance.
BE READY FOR CYBERWAR
As the conflict in Ukraine showed, ground stations that process and disseminate information are vulnerable to cyberattacks.
The US Space Force is aware of this threat and is taking steps to protect ground networks so satellites can distribute their information.
Ukraine’s conflict is a valuable source of lessons for the United States as it prepares for a potential future conflict with China.
While the two scenarios are different in many ways, there are clear parallels that can be drawn.
The US is taking steps to address the lessons learned from Ukraine, including arming Taiwan in advance, addressing stockpile woes, rebuilding its defence capabilities, preparing for space as a front line, and being ready for cyber war.
The ultimate goal is to ensure that the US is prepared for any eventuality and can effectively defend its interests and those of its allies.
